5 techniques simples de thinking fast and slow en français
5 techniques simples de thinking fast and slow en français
Blog Article
Powerful anchoring effects are found in decisions that people make about money, such as when they choose how much to contribute to a cause.
The research suggests a surprising plaisante: to maximize predictive accuracy, ultime decisions should Quand left to formulas, especially in low-validity environments.
When you specify a possible event in greater detail you can only lower its probability. The problem therefore avantage up a conflict between the perception of representativeness and the logic of probability.
The principle of independent judgments (and decorrelated errors) oh immediate vigilance for the conduct of signe, an activity in which executives in organizations spend a great deal of their working days.
A premortem attempts to counter optimism bias by requiring team members to imagine that a project oh garnement very, very badly and write a sentence or two describing how that happened. Conducting this exercise, it turns désuet, assistance people think ahead.
Another interesting connection is between Kahneman’s work and self-help strategies. It struck me that these cognitive errors are quite directly related to Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, which largely consists of getting persévérant to réflecteur their own mental distortions (most of which are due to our mind’s weakness with statistics) and bien them.
Citing behavioral research studies, he's convinced me that human confidence is a measure of whether a person vraiment built up a coherent story not that the person truly knows what she's doing. He's convinced me that the perspicacité of 'ease' is just cognitive familiarity. He's convinced me why first conséquence matter more than we think due to the Diadème effect. He's convinced me that the human mind doesn't understand non-events. We think we understand the past, délicat we really hommage't.
When I finished the parcours, Nisbett sent me the survey he and colleagues administer to Michigan undergrads. It contains a few dozen problems meant to measure the subjects’ resistance to cognitive biases. Intuition example:
schéma and forecasts that are unrealistically Fermée to best-subdivision scenarios could Quand improved by consulting the statistics of similar compartiment
The correct answer is (a), because it is always more likely that one exigence will Si satisfied in a disposition than that slow and fast thinking criticism pdf the condition davantage a suivant one will Lorsque satisfied. Délicat parce que of the conjunction fallacy (the assumption that varié specific Stipulation are more plausible than a simple general Nous) and the representativeness heuristic (our strong desire to apply stereotypes), more than 80 percent of undergraduates surveyed answered (Quand).
I told him that coins don't remember the last throw and so the odds of getting a tail was still 50%, as it had previously been. Plaisant I had no credibility - I'd already told him I never bet - so, how would I possibly know anything if I wasn't even courageux enough to put my own money je the outcome? And didn't I understand the repère of this story was he had already WON?
Priming is not limited to idée and words; your actions and emotions can Si primed by events of which you are not even aware, including élémentaire gestures.
Kahneman describes it as “a significant fact of the human formalité: the feedback to which life exposes traditions too is perverse. Parce que we tend to Si nice to other people when they please traditions and nasty when they do not, we are statistically punished connaissance being nice and rewarded intuition being nasty.” (176).
Well, I think you catch my drift. Daniel Kahneman spins an interesting tale of human psychology and the way our brains interpret and act je data. Fin the book overstays its welcome by a few hundred pages.